* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 57 57 57 55 54 53 51 48 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 57 57 57 55 54 53 51 48 48 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 51 51 52 52 53 52 49 47 43 39 35 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 3 2 6 8 8 11 15 21 23 22 22 20 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 3 2 -3 0 5 6 5 1 2 2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 157 180 201 252 246 229 305 285 243 224 223 221 223 221 200 207 207 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 152 148 143 143 142 142 143 142 139 134 131 131 135 138 142 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 55 54 53 52 52 53 53 58 57 54 51 49 46 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 14 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 31 39 46 53 57 51 44 30 8 -13 -12 -7 12 43 55 200 MB DIV 1 8 16 25 23 3 31 27 45 56 94 62 24 11 15 -27 -23 700-850 TADV 7 5 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 2 3 6 5 3 0 -1 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1867 1768 1669 1593 1518 1397 1277 1170 1087 1043 1046 1085 1105 1120 1104 1079 1071 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.5 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.3 17.2 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.4 141.4 142.2 143.0 144.3 145.3 146.0 146.2 146.0 145.5 144.8 144.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 6 4 1 1 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 17 18 27 28 25 18 15 11 8 9 8 9 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -11. -10. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.6 139.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 30.1% 22.6% 20.0% 14.6% 25.6% 23.8% 17.4% Logistic: 17.3% 48.8% 39.3% 31.3% 12.4% 28.0% 11.6% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 12.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.5% 0.4% Consensus: 10.2% 30.3% 20.8% 17.1% 9.1% 18.2% 12.6% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##