* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 44 48 51 53 51 49 46 43 40 37 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 44 48 51 53 51 49 46 43 40 37 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 49 50 50 50 48 44 39 33 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 8 8 2 7 8 16 16 22 27 32 32 34 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -6 -1 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 137 156 151 173 201 183 215 262 268 252 242 229 232 233 236 237 246 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 156 157 155 147 143 142 144 147 138 139 136 134 132 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 50 54 53 50 49 52 54 56 54 51 47 43 37 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 8 11 15 28 44 49 50 42 39 20 -10 -34 -49 -53 -57 -71 200 MB DIV 22 19 24 18 9 20 12 31 20 33 55 60 27 31 27 7 -13 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2137 2018 1899 1795 1692 1526 1398 1286 1211 1178 1199 1287 1406 1526 1664 1795 1941 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.3 16.5 17.8 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.8 138.9 139.9 140.9 142.5 143.7 144.6 144.9 144.6 143.9 142.7 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 5 6 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 18 19 20 20 25 24 18 17 11 21 26 12 9 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.6 136.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 26.9% 19.7% 18.2% 13.1% 20.7% 19.9% 19.6% Logistic: 10.1% 27.7% 18.9% 12.1% 8.2% 20.8% 17.4% 18.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 7.6% 19.7% 12.9% 10.1% 7.1% 13.9% 12.8% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##