* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 43 36 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 43 36 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 44 39 34 28 25 23 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 51 52 48 45 40 40 44 48 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 264 270 276 297 305 297 296 283 272 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 19.0 18.4 18.2 18.2 17.2 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.6 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 82 80 78 77 73 73 73 73 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 77 75 73 72 68 68 67 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -51.7 -52.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 42 46 45 45 47 47 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 30 26 22 20 16 13 10 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 140 148 139 117 112 94 88 79 77 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 11 9 7 -11 -11 -10 -5 -12 -9 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 28 39 13 35 40 21 16 1 -15 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1235 1488 1748 1589 1337 973 716 496 301 156 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 42.3 42.6 43.0 43.4 43.9 43.8 43.4 42.9 42.1 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 35.4 31.7 28.6 25.6 21.1 17.9 15.2 12.8 10.8 8.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 28 25 23 19 14 11 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 31 CX,CY: 31/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -29. -35. -43. -49. -55. -63. -68. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -25. -32. -35. -39. -40. -41. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -25. -36. -51. -66. -77. -86. -95.-102.-109.-116.-120.-123.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 41.9 39.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.9 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 43 36 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 47 40 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 44 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT