* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 49 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 49 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 49 44 39 33 29 25 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 45 47 47 49 43 45 47 44 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 6 0 -1 2 2 0 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 258 266 267 274 294 293 284 274 267 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 20.1 19.1 18.6 18.1 17.8 17.4 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 85 82 80 78 75 73 73 73 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 80 77 75 73 70 68 67 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 40 40 41 42 39 41 43 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 33 31 28 24 21 20 16 13 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 116 146 147 136 102 96 85 90 106 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 25 17 30 9 2 -8 -5 -1 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 11 40 39 21 30 24 -5 -7 -13 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 993 1225 1483 1712 1600 1166 862 611 399 213 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.3 41.8 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.8 44.0 43.7 43.3 42.8 42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.2 39.4 35.5 32.1 28.8 23.5 19.7 16.6 14.0 11.7 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 29 27 25 22 16 13 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 32 CX,CY: 31/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -23. -30. -35. -40. -46. -51. -58. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -28. -35. -40. -41. -42. -42. -40. -39. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -25. -37. -50. -66. -80. -91. -98.-104.-110.-117.-121.-124.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 41.3 43.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 55 49 42 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 53 46 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 49 42 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT