* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 57 52 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 57 52 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 52 47 37 31 28 26 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 38 38 44 49 50 44 43 43 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 0 10 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 250 253 255 263 275 290 287 286 283 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 20.2 21.5 20.1 18.8 17.6 17.8 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 86 91 86 81 77 75 74 73 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 81 85 80 76 72 70 68 67 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 42 41 40 43 43 38 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 37 36 33 27 24 24 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 89 117 146 131 119 100 112 108 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 19 32 32 28 16 0 3 -6 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 29 22 32 29 27 12 0 -5 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 737 795 960 1198 1467 1560 1143 823 579 406 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 40.9 41.5 42.1 42.7 43.9 44.4 44.1 43.7 43.2 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.3 47.4 43.5 39.4 35.4 28.4 23.2 19.2 16.2 14.1 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 30 31 31 28 22 16 13 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 27 CX,CY: 26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -45. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -24. -30. -33. -38. -43. -47. -53. -57. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -18. -23. -31. -38. -39. -39. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -33. -46. -56. -68. -81. -93. -99.-105.-111.-115.-117.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.2 51.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 57 52 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 54 48 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT