* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 68 65 62 50 39 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 68 65 62 50 39 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 67 64 59 49 41 35 30 27 28 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 27 34 38 48 54 40 34 27 24 22 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 9 10 11 9 3 2 0 2 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 235 240 242 247 261 273 290 283 266 243 224 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 24.0 20.2 21.7 19.1 17.7 17.1 16.1 15.3 15.3 14.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 103 86 91 82 77 75 72 69 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 94 80 85 77 72 70 67 65 64 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 2.3 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 48 45 43 40 42 46 52 38 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 40 41 41 39 37 35 32 28 27 28 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 76 74 87 103 133 152 126 93 73 90 81 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 59 62 49 45 43 23 12 18 19 10 -2 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 8 6 8 38 22 39 38 44 43 0 -37 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 759 806 730 764 903 1365 1688 1258 897 607 385 236 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.8 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.5 42.8 44.1 45.6 47.1 48.6 49.5 49.8 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 54.9 51.8 48.1 44.4 36.7 30.0 24.5 20.1 16.9 14.1 11.6 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 25 27 29 29 27 23 19 15 12 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. -42. -46. -50. -51. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -25. -25. -27. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -19. -18. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -8. -20. -31. -42. -52. -62. -67. -68. -71. -74. -77. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 38.8 58.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 68 65 62 50 39 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 66 63 51 40 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 60 48 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 45 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT