* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 67 66 62 58 51 42 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 67 66 62 58 51 42 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 64 64 62 57 49 41 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 7 7 12 18 30 29 26 31 56 69 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 6 3 1 0 -4 8 16 13 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 44 49 131 180 209 200 232 236 231 234 235 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.6 26.6 26.1 25.4 23.5 21.4 20.1 19.1 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 143 142 133 128 121 101 79 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 66 63 47 39 33 33 37 44 46 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 112 131 163 159 104 60 27 -102 -129 -31 -2 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 24 40 66 64 63 16 -28 -8 56 58 59 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -2 -6 -11 -3 2 -27 -15 -29 -2 -40 -107 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 523 503 490 488 525 724 1062 1458 1806 1378 972 647 373 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.2 18.2 20.9 24.2 27.6 31.1 34.5 37.8 41.2 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.1 152.4 151.7 150.9 150.0 148.0 145.8 143.5 140.9 138.1 135.1 132.0 128.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 15 18 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 28 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -23. -35. -49. -54. -59. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -2. -9. -18. -32. -50. -71. -83. -96.-109.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 153.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 13.3% 35.6% 12.5% 9.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 20.4% 6.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##