* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 55 53 51 47 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 55 53 51 47 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 53 52 49 43 36 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 10 7 13 20 28 25 25 28 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 4 2 1 5 1 10 13 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 86 89 94 90 154 203 220 253 249 250 237 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.7 26.7 25.8 24.6 22.7 20.9 20.2 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 140 137 143 134 125 112 93 74 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 71 69 64 50 43 40 41 33 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 25 22 22 20 18 14 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 96 105 125 138 147 89 49 17 -44 -59 -122 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 64 68 57 47 65 62 -13 -6 10 26 16 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 7 0 -6 -11 -6 -2 9 -6 -17 -17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 503 489 479 475 535 734 1077 1495 1775 1342 943 633 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 18.2 21.3 24.8 28.3 31.6 35.0 38.4 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.0 153.6 153.2 152.5 151.8 149.9 148.0 146.0 143.6 140.9 138.0 135.0 132.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 11 15 19 20 20 20 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 25 20 28 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -33. -36. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -13. -16. -27. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -3. -9. -18. -28. -50. -60. -64. -69. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 154.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.4% 18.1% 5.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##