* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 20 22 28 35 41 45 50 54 56 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 20 22 28 35 41 45 50 54 56 60 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 25 28 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 10 8 5 5 4 6 3 8 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 9 7 8 8 7 2 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 154 152 168 161 187 226 170 124 84 63 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.3 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 160 160 165 166 166 166 163 158 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 57 61 61 63 68 69 67 69 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 166 161 161 151 144 147 140 138 128 135 127 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 5 0 -1 8 10 7 18 5 11 39 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 8 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1704 1740 1778 1836 1897 2059 2267 2504 2750 2816 2547 2301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.4 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.5 173.2 174.1 175.0 177.2 179.8 182.5 185.2 187.9 190.4 192.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 50 58 60 56 49 61 70 87 63 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. 3. 10. 16. 20. 25. 29. 31. 35. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 171.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 3.0% 0.3% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##