* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 46 54 56 55 52 50 48 46 38 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 46 54 56 55 52 50 48 46 38 24 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 39 42 43 43 40 35 31 28 25 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 9 5 18 29 27 15 9 13 29 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 3 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 1 4 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 82 86 78 77 95 164 190 218 211 237 228 238 250 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.3 27.4 26.4 26.1 25.2 25.1 23.5 19.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 145 142 136 138 128 125 116 117 106 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 74 74 71 64 61 63 65 65 58 52 44 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 21 20 20 21 20 19 18 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 72 69 69 83 110 134 114 85 40 27 -10 -44 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 59 69 76 53 34 60 70 60 28 8 33 35 36 89 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -7 -4 -10 -40 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 608 580 551 522 493 429 416 414 471 596 772 978 1217 1618 631 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.8 21.6 23.8 26.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.9 155.0 155.0 154.8 154.6 153.8 152.7 151.7 150.5 149.1 147.7 146.5 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 12 12 18 47 72 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 27 27 29 37 18 27 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -0. -4. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 19. 21. 20. 17. 15. 13. 11. 3. -11. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 154.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 2.2% 8.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 3.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##