* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 82 81 79 74 71 64 56 42 41 34 25 17 25 22 20 V (KT) LAND 90 86 82 81 79 74 71 64 56 42 41 34 25 17 25 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 80 77 75 74 74 68 56 46 41 38 36 39 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 14 10 20 21 37 49 53 44 27 16 14 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -1 1 7 3 10 4 8 0 2 0 4 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 236 243 235 229 256 246 255 248 260 265 272 260 243 189 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.7 20.4 19.4 17.2 14.4 14.1 13.1 11.6 9.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 120 120 121 116 86 83 77 72 71 71 70 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 106 103 103 107 104 80 78 73 69 68 68 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -51.3 -50.0 -50.5 -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 -53.8 -56.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 63 59 56 55 56 57 51 47 48 44 53 67 77 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 35 36 37 36 40 41 42 38 41 39 34 30 36 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 106 104 102 86 68 72 104 143 158 155 140 133 166 182 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 47 23 27 49 11 71 64 68 62 56 24 45 83 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 35 18 18 12 7 15 -39 15 14 16 43 83 63 44 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 949 953 894 850 780 803 672 970 1456 1326 869 575 617 755 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.8 33.9 34.9 35.8 37.6 39.5 41.5 43.5 45.5 47.8 50.4 54.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.0 65.4 64.5 63.7 60.5 55.2 48.8 41.6 34.0 27.6 22.5 18.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 19 24 27 29 27 23 21 23 25 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -32. -40. -47. -53. -59. -64. -67. -69. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 2. -4. -0. -4. -11. -17. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -9. -11. -16. -19. -26. -34. -48. -49. -56. -65. -73. -65. -68. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.7 66.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 7( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 82 81 79 74 71 64 56 42 41 34 25 17 25 22 20 18HR AGO 90 89 85 84 82 77 74 67 59 45 44 37 28 20 28 25 23 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 78 75 68 60 46 45 38 29 21 29 26 24 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 73 70 63 55 41 40 33 24 16 24 21 19 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 66 63 56 48 34 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 65 62 55 47 33 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT