* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 32 37 40 43 48 50 53 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 32 37 40 43 48 50 53 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 25 27 29 33 38 44 51 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 24 19 17 14 12 9 6 7 13 12 16 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 10 12 2 4 3 3 -1 2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 145 153 162 161 150 158 181 136 113 92 91 73 75 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.4 29.7 29.4 30.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 159 161 161 161 164 168 171 163 161 168 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 55 60 64 66 68 67 67 68 70 75 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 186 185 179 180 180 176 167 147 142 138 124 134 154 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 11 16 13 20 33 33 29 37 4 5 23 12 -32 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 3 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1704 1747 1791 1827 1864 1936 2043 2191 2375 2581 2806 2766 2473 2118 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.8 172.3 172.8 173.3 173.8 174.9 176.5 178.5 180.7 183.1 185.6 188.4 191.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 42 43 46 50 53 41 42 59 75 88 66 63 70 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 2. 7. 10. 13. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 171.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##