* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 29 33 37 42 46 49 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 29 33 37 42 46 49 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 26 26 26 28 30 35 41 49 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 22 20 17 14 12 6 4 5 8 12 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 8 5 5 5 2 1 2 2 0 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 138 142 155 160 159 185 201 206 145 65 76 71 99 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.4 29.9 29.3 29.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 158 160 160 161 163 166 171 166 159 165 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 56 55 55 59 59 65 65 68 69 70 71 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 165 167 177 182 178 175 170 168 151 141 135 130 123 153 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 0 20 8 5 48 31 32 62 17 15 11 35 33 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1685 1728 1768 1808 1884 1972 2113 2278 2477 2709 2850 2535 2342 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.0 172.4 172.9 173.3 174.3 175.7 177.6 179.7 182.0 184.6 187.6 190.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 4 6 9 10 11 12 14 15 12 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 45 47 53 47 39 54 68 90 67 64 64 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 171.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##