* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 120 111 103 90 84 74 66 58 52 49 44 36 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 130 128 120 111 103 90 84 74 66 58 52 49 44 36 26 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 130 129 123 113 102 88 82 79 80 75 65 56 47 41 40 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 27 25 19 21 12 19 26 44 50 52 33 25 15 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 2 1 -2 5 4 6 1 8 2 0 0 4 6 1 SHEAR DIR 310 305 284 274 253 232 232 240 244 259 257 265 274 269 239 204 151 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.2 20.6 19.5 14.8 14.4 14.0 12.7 11.7 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 147 132 127 124 123 124 121 88 85 74 71 69 68 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 133 117 111 108 106 109 109 82 80 71 67 65 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.5 -51.2 -50.5 -51.5 -51.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.4 1.5 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 67 65 56 52 54 59 56 57 60 61 58 66 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 36 36 36 37 35 37 41 45 49 48 43 37 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 133 125 119 124 124 116 107 94 101 120 140 136 134 141 211 250 301 200 MB DIV 83 57 39 31 37 35 49 25 44 60 81 76 45 32 58 89 1 700-850 TADV 52 52 43 36 31 29 -1 4 -20 40 65 111 87 80 41 15 -6 LAND (KM) 733 879 976 948 929 945 884 803 773 661 1074 1581 1064 805 679 755 850 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.4 33.6 35.6 37.6 39.8 42.0 44.4 46.9 49.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 69.9 68.8 68.0 67.1 65.7 63.4 60.0 54.9 48.0 39.7 30.7 24.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 13 13 15 20 26 31 33 28 18 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 28 10 5 5 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -17. -30. -45. -58. -72. -83. -92.-100.-107.-112.-115.-115. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -19. -22. -26. -23. -17. -14. -12. -10. -10. -9. -5. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -3. 1. 6. 11. 9. 1. -8. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -10. -19. -27. -40. -46. -56. -64. -72. -78. -81. -86. -94.-104.-107.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.4 71.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 6.1% 4.2% 4.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 33( 62) 25( 71) 12( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 120 111 103 90 84 74 66 58 52 49 44 36 26 23 21 18HR AGO 130 129 121 112 104 91 85 75 67 59 53 50 45 37 27 24 22 12HR AGO 130 127 126 117 109 96 90 80 72 64 58 55 50 42 32 29 27 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 112 99 93 83 75 67 61 58 53 45 35 32 30 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 98 92 82 74 66 60 57 52 44 34 31 29 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 103 97 87 79 71 65 62 57 49 39 36 34 IN 12HR 130 128 120 111 105 101 95 85 77 69 63 60 55 47 37 34 32