* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 54 63 71 75 76 74 71 68 61 58 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 54 63 71 75 76 74 71 68 61 58 56 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 57 64 69 73 74 69 61 54 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 7 3 9 6 8 9 12 20 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 -5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -8 -1 -1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 224 176 170 164 85 84 88 118 169 202 197 193 169 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 147 145 145 145 142 139 137 139 141 127 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 61 62 59 59 59 61 60 60 55 53 57 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 19 21 24 24 26 27 28 29 27 28 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 80 80 84 83 76 88 99 106 119 140 153 143 97 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 58 61 74 61 30 12 4 14 54 68 60 4 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 572 530 489 456 425 384 328 281 257 284 289 280 317 539 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.5 154.7 154.8 155.2 155.5 156.2 156.1 155.5 154.7 153.7 152.9 152.4 151.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 9 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 31 33 37 37 33 30 30 27 28 29 2 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 36. 40. 41. 39. 36. 33. 26. 23. 21. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 154.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 28.9% 72.5% 53.3% 44.3% 27.7% 49.3% 42.0% 12.9% Bayesian: 6.0% 56.4% 34.2% 14.3% 4.6% 37.3% 27.7% 2.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##