* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 10/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 19 20 23 27 30 32 32 32 33 36 39 42 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 19 20 23 27 30 32 32 32 33 36 39 42 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 16 11 10 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -3 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 251 250 248 243 270 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.5 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 163 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -21 -33 -22 -6 -1 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 35 8 6 12 28 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 175 196 222 264 295 377 486 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.9 104.6 105.3 106.1 107.7 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 40 44 44 43 59 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 43. 47. 50. 53. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 103.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 10/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 2.5% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 10/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##