* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 84 86 86 87 87 92 94 78 60 50 46 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 84 86 86 87 87 92 94 78 60 50 36 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 85 85 85 87 93 100 94 73 56 48 36 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 6 8 18 20 28 13 20 17 15 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 10 9 11 16 7 -1 4 -2 2 -2 1 1 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 17 15 18 11 3 308 290 245 239 192 248 257 228 199 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.0 27.0 24.7 21.3 22.3 20.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 162 162 161 163 162 161 138 125 103 84 88 82 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 139 139 139 142 142 142 120 107 88 74 76 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -49.4 -49.3 -49.3 -49.8 -51.6 -52.6 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 2.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 62 63 65 64 61 58 52 55 59 72 81 81 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 31 31 33 34 39 42 33 23 19 19 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 45 48 71 81 96 122 144 206 181 142 82 105 125 158 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 14 16 43 25 37 92 72 80 47 67 27 75 81 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 4 6 4 12 2 35 62 15 10 20 3 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 441 406 392 380 445 568 615 610 388 223 154 31 -86 -233 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.9 26.1 27.7 29.9 32.5 35.0 37.3 39.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.3 73.7 74.0 74.3 74.6 74.4 73.9 73.5 73.3 73.4 73.9 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 7 10 12 13 12 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 54 53 52 51 48 85 54 40 23 10 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 15. 1. -13. -19. -19. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 17. 19. 3. -15. -25. -29. -32. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.5 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.7% 38.4% 28.9% 24.1% 16.4% 14.4% 13.2% 11.0% Logistic: 35.4% 28.5% 21.4% 24.9% 20.0% 16.9% 11.7% 4.9% Bayesian: 11.3% 32.1% 17.0% 9.6% 2.8% 4.6% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 26.1% 33.0% 22.4% 19.5% 13.1% 12.0% 8.5% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 10( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 7( 9) 8( 16) 7( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 82 84 86 86 87 87 92 94 78 60 50 36 30 30 30 18HR AGO 75 74 77 79 81 81 82 82 87 89 73 55 45 31 25 25 25 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 75 76 76 81 83 67 49 39 25 19 19 19 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 67 68 68 73 75 59 41 31 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT