* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 77 82 87 88 93 98 99 84 60 54 50 42 33 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 77 82 87 88 93 98 99 84 60 54 50 42 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 70 73 79 84 91 99 104 96 71 52 47 47 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 18 14 10 4 7 14 17 32 23 18 17 28 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 7 8 10 6 3 6 7 0 5 2 3 5 1 5 SHEAR DIR 21 17 22 27 28 25 339 334 312 257 239 196 253 210 207 193 221 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 27.9 27.2 26.8 24.7 17.7 18.2 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 161 161 159 161 163 162 161 136 127 122 104 75 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 138 138 137 134 137 141 142 140 117 107 103 89 70 72 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.0 -49.9 -48.9 -48.6 -48.5 -49.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 64 64 68 66 64 55 48 44 41 54 65 65 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 28 30 30 34 34 37 41 45 37 23 21 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 36 46 54 83 106 132 160 211 198 190 114 178 208 174 124 200 MB DIV 7 34 33 7 11 40 52 103 66 84 31 20 42 72 72 79 81 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 3 6 2 21 20 59 46 1 0 -4 -7 -49 -15 LAND (KM) 625 590 552 518 485 453 493 594 648 614 460 350 331 232 99 82 66 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.3 26.3 27.9 30.1 32.3 34.4 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.5 72.9 73.3 73.7 74.3 74.4 74.1 73.6 73.0 72.5 72.2 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 1 3 7 10 11 11 11 11 12 17 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 49 54 55 51 48 50 86 58 42 21 12 18 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 8. 12. 17. 22. 11. -11. -13. -13. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 27. 28. 33. 38. 39. 24. -0. -6. -10. -18. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.6 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 30.1% 21.0% 19.6% 11.5% 15.4% 13.4% 14.7% Logistic: 15.5% 29.0% 21.8% 18.6% 14.2% 13.2% 18.8% 13.6% Bayesian: 3.0% 19.9% 5.9% 2.3% 0.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.0% Consensus: 11.1% 26.3% 16.2% 13.5% 8.8% 10.1% 11.1% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 8( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 8( 8) 13( 20) 25( 40) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 73 77 82 87 88 93 98 99 84 60 54 50 42 33 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 72 77 82 83 88 93 94 79 55 49 45 37 28 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 69 74 75 80 85 86 71 47 41 37 29 20 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 59 64 65 70 75 76 61 37 31 27 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT