* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 32 27 24 23 21 20 24 27 29 32 34 38 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 45 39 32 27 24 23 21 20 24 27 29 32 34 38 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 30 28 24 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 22 26 26 23 26 11 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 2 4 4 4 2 0 10 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 248 247 239 238 243 256 287 308 315 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 166 165 165 164 161 161 162 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 64 66 68 70 69 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 22 8 0 -22 -27 -43 -31 -1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 35 30 16 24 27 44 53 81 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 -2 0 -3 3 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 127 123 137 153 161 195 238 295 331 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.4 101.5 101.9 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.0 105.9 106.6 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 34 33 32 31 29 28 28 35 50 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. -21. -18. -16. -13. -11. -7. -4. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 101.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##