* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 22 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 28 31 32 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 22 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 28 31 32 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 21 19 17 17 17 18 18 20 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 25 22 19 15 22 19 21 21 24 22 13 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 0 1 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 251 259 258 256 244 238 244 239 223 229 209 251 227 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 155 156 156 157 157 159 161 164 167 174 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 66 67 66 62 64 61 62 58 56 66 75 85 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 43 54 54 53 70 83 100 115 147 155 179 103 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 27 44 72 45 29 31 35 48 53 67 80 101 117 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -6 -6 -10 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 434 472 520 563 611 697 780 851 926 971 1048 1145 1247 1161 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.7 12.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.5 157.3 158.0 158.7 159.3 160.3 161.2 161.9 162.7 163.4 164.3 165.3 166.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 11 26 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 44 53 57 53 44 41 40 39 38 38 43 46 38 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 156.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##