* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 42 43 44 48 52 51 51 51 50 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 42 43 44 48 52 51 51 51 50 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 40 41 43 47 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 19 17 20 13 14 9 8 29 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -6 1 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 339 333 336 348 344 345 330 226 217 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 156 157 158 148 141 134 128 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 129 130 131 132 123 119 114 109 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 64 65 67 68 67 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 66 62 65 49 50 65 97 106 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 18 -3 -11 -12 1 -3 48 46 63 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 6 42 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 882 901 920 938 913 824 710 594 448 308 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.9 30.9 32.7 35.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.4 69.7 70.0 70.4 71.0 71.6 72.1 72.3 72.4 72.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 48 46 47 51 56 31 24 20 12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 13. 17. 16. 17. 16. 15. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.6 69.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.4% 8.7% 6.3% 5.3% 7.8% 9.0% 11.8% Logistic: 1.2% 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% 4.7% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.4% 3.6% 2.3% 1.8% 3.4% 4.6% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 40 42 43 44 48 52 51 51 51 50 50 52 54 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 37 39 40 41 45 49 48 48 48 47 47 49 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 35 36 40 44 43 43 43 42 42 44 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 28 29 33 37 36 36 36 35 35 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT