* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 65 64 57 48 41 37 34 34 37 41 42 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 65 64 57 48 41 37 34 34 37 41 42 45 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 64 62 54 49 45 41 38 35 32 32 32 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 20 18 25 29 28 25 25 18 16 19 23 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 3 -1 3 5 7 6 3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 287 270 257 248 241 227 244 243 249 249 272 313 331 327 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 163 163 162 164 164 163 163 162 163 164 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 60 56 57 59 59 61 67 72 74 77 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 14 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 11 22 19 17 25 4 -22 -32 -20 -21 -20 -18 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 45 47 68 59 86 41 33 29 25 50 56 50 82 70 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 1 -6 6 0 5 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 250 222 196 168 145 123 143 172 215 246 261 264 252 247 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 102.9 102.7 102.5 102.4 102.5 102.9 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.5 106.0 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 36 34 32 31 29 29 29 29 30 32 39 51 53 53 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 5. 4. -3. -12. -19. -23. -26. -26. -23. -19. -18. -15. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 43.0% 25.6% 19.3% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 28.0% 13.4% 8.2% 12.5% 2.4% 0.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 19.4% 3.1% 1.4% 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 30.1% 14.0% 9.7% 11.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##