* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 25 25 28 30 33 34 34 35 38 41 43 45 45 V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 26 25 25 28 30 33 34 34 35 38 41 43 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 24 22 22 22 24 26 28 31 33 36 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 23 19 17 16 14 17 13 14 15 16 13 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 249 254 252 248 254 234 273 264 260 232 246 223 249 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 30.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 155 154 156 158 159 160 162 163 163 162 169 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 66 68 64 65 65 65 66 63 64 71 80 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 35 46 56 62 79 82 83 102 140 145 162 126 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 47 41 74 89 29 45 32 48 32 57 72 109 104 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 403 433 477 532 593 712 835 945 1028 1097 1161 1227 1292 1215 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.9 156.7 157.5 158.3 159.0 160.4 161.6 162.7 163.8 164.7 165.6 166.3 167.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 36 47 55 56 44 40 39 38 40 45 46 48 40 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -7. -5. -2. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 155.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##