* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 33 31 29 26 25 24 24 26 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 36 33 31 29 26 25 24 24 26 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 37 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 31 30 31 27 22 24 25 29 26 26 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 264 257 253 255 253 260 252 259 253 258 251 258 222 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 150 151 153 155 155 156 156 155 155 158 164 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 60 60 58 57 58 60 57 57 59 74 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 29 35 41 51 52 71 80 97 117 135 137 122 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 17 40 57 44 50 31 28 35 48 41 75 73 114 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 343 348 360 382 441 511 603 712 837 901 954 1022 1005 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.8 155.4 156.0 156.6 157.6 158.7 159.8 161.0 162.2 163.2 164.0 164.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 29 28 30 34 47 54 51 47 43 40 40 44 40 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -21. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -19. -17. -16. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 154.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##