* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 43 44 45 48 53 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 43 44 45 48 53 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 17 12 7 8 17 24 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 4 4 2 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 231 228 245 252 254 1 3 1 7 359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 138 142 160 164 163 165 165 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 118 122 127 146 150 148 148 147 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 36 38 38 40 43 46 52 52 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 44 43 40 32 41 30 27 10 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 15 10 -2 -2 3 -24 9 -6 17 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 0 0 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1969 1918 1866 1789 1713 1501 1286 1100 955 834 742 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.3 48.8 49.5 50.2 52.2 54.4 56.5 58.3 59.9 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 21 26 40 38 37 42 48 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -0. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 18. 19. 20. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.3 47.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.4% 6.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% 3.4% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/27/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 43 44 45 48 53 57 60 63 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 34 40 42 43 44 47 52 56 59 62 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 36 38 39 40 43 48 52 55 58 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 29 31 32 33 36 41 45 48 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT