* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 52 48 44 38 32 29 24 22 19 19 21 22 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 55 55 52 48 44 38 32 29 24 22 19 19 21 22 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 52 48 40 34 30 27 24 22 21 19 18 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 27 32 35 37 33 28 27 28 32 28 30 22 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 4 4 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 248 255 253 253 261 258 267 250 260 252 249 252 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 145 145 147 147 149 152 155 154 154 154 156 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 59 57 55 55 56 59 64 64 67 70 67 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 23 18 20 46 52 59 70 84 81 94 106 129 127 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 12 19 16 12 26 52 54 37 52 61 70 58 77 86 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 9 2 4 2 -2 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 412 362 312 279 250 208 236 295 368 467 564 681 786 896 1065 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.8 15.5 15.1 14.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.3 152.8 153.3 153.8 154.9 155.8 156.8 157.7 158.7 159.7 160.8 161.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 48 44 39 35 29 27 32 43 52 50 47 45 42 41 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -29. -28. -26. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -7. -11. -17. -23. -26. -31. -33. -36. -36. -34. -33. -30. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 151.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##