* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX CP062015 09/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 37 38 37 36 34 32 34 34 33 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 37 38 37 36 34 32 34 34 33 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 22 22 22 21 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 14 15 17 17 20 20 21 17 23 27 33 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 299 292 283 270 268 252 260 254 268 264 275 253 260 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 144 145 147 148 147 147 147 148 148 146 145 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 61 61 62 61 59 59 60 62 62 64 61 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 17 21 20 5 8 10 37 41 52 67 80 87 96 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 16 19 21 23 24 17 1 24 44 54 24 23 31 61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 4 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 797 720 643 566 489 355 261 195 213 268 337 410 487 582 695 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.0 150.5 151.0 151.6 152.8 154.1 155.3 156.3 157.1 157.8 158.6 159.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 30 32 38 47 42 32 28 28 31 36 39 39 40 43 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 149.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 SIX 09/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.8% 15.6% 5.6% 3.6% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 SIX 09/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##