* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 37 37 36 34 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 37 37 36 34 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 17 19 17 17 18 25 19 22 28 23 13 13 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -4 -3 0 2 5 0 -4 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 267 278 282 274 269 286 254 244 241 264 268 294 316 355 2 354 11 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 130 133 135 139 139 137 135 134 135 143 154 160 163 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 114 117 119 122 119 117 115 115 117 124 134 138 142 142 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.2 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 40 40 38 36 39 42 46 45 44 45 47 47 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 61 48 39 39 36 16 3 27 24 15 13 1 9 5 -12 -17 -29 200 MB DIV 18 0 1 3 0 -6 0 5 -1 10 -16 -8 -12 -1 -6 -19 -27 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -6 -5 -8 -4 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1964 1998 2030 2053 2063 2021 1963 1921 1871 1795 1711 1609 1511 1419 1329 1240 1160 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.4 45.5 45.8 46.2 47.1 47.9 48.4 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.6 52.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 18 20 23 24 28 28 24 19 17 21 27 31 35 39 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 2.6% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2.7% 0.9% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 37 37 36 34 35 38 41 44 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 34 37 36 36 35 33 34 37 40 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 30 33 32 32 31 29 30 33 36 39 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 24 27 26 26 25 23 24 27 30 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT