* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 37 38 39 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 37 38 39 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 21 19 15 20 12 18 19 21 15 20 16 16 18 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 263 268 281 288 277 283 280 263 232 252 262 279 307 347 349 341 356 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 129 131 136 142 144 144 138 134 138 146 157 161 165 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 113 115 119 125 125 124 119 115 119 127 138 141 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 43 43 41 42 40 44 45 47 47 46 48 47 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 38 29 24 9 -4 -2 26 12 18 2 5 -4 -4 -7 -14 200 MB DIV 25 16 -5 -3 9 -2 -6 14 17 5 2 -17 -11 -20 10 -25 -29 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1954 1991 2029 2060 2089 2108 2048 1986 1911 1817 1719 1613 1488 1362 1250 1164 1089 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.1 45.1 45.3 45.5 46.2 47.0 47.8 48.7 49.7 50.7 51.7 53.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 17 23 28 32 31 38 29 21 19 23 29 33 40 40 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 1.3% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.4% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 37 38 39 41 43 46 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 37 38 39 41 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 31 32 33 34 35 34 35 36 38 40 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 25 26 27 28 27 28 29 31 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT