* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 40 41 41 42 42 43 46 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 40 41 41 42 42 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 42 44 46 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 20 17 12 18 11 16 15 17 16 11 12 18 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 3 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 276 265 269 278 270 279 264 260 228 235 228 279 290 310 297 311 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 126 126 131 136 140 139 137 137 138 138 142 150 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 111 112 112 116 119 121 119 116 118 119 118 123 129 134 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 45 45 44 43 44 43 45 45 44 45 48 50 52 54 54 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 54 55 45 30 23 16 9 21 10 5 -6 -11 -26 -30 -36 200 MB DIV 7 11 25 19 8 17 0 10 9 11 -10 1 -11 -3 -20 -3 -29 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1771 1806 1841 1874 1907 1958 1970 1938 1902 1869 1820 1752 1675 1608 1532 1466 1391 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.7 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 45.6 45.5 45.6 45.8 46.4 47.1 47.8 48.3 48.7 49.2 49.9 50.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 9 12 17 22 23 23 22 20 19 22 26 30 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 45.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 40 41 41 42 42 43 46 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 38 38 39 39 40 39 40 40 41 41 42 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 34 35 35 36 35 36 36 37 37 38 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 28 29 29 30 30 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT