* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 43 44 42 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 43 44 42 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 29 28 28 30 32 35 38 41 42 42 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 24 19 20 15 17 8 15 6 14 13 19 19 20 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 3 0 2 -1 0 0 0 3 0 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 292 299 302 304 292 289 296 300 285 269 279 254 262 261 285 306 320 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 127 125 126 127 131 137 143 149 147 145 145 145 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 111 110 110 111 115 120 124 127 123 121 120 122 120 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 48 48 43 45 47 48 50 53 55 57 55 55 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 17 16 15 13 13 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 35 47 57 62 43 30 18 13 5 0 13 -7 -3 -9 -14 -25 200 MB DIV -20 -6 17 13 1 30 7 12 6 4 20 17 -6 10 -17 -3 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 1 4 8 0 2 0 0 2 2 1 -2 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1802 1803 1805 1824 1843 1917 1976 2036 2083 2061 2047 2046 2044 2034 2015 1968 1921 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 46.9 46.7 46.4 46.1 45.8 45.8 46.0 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.4 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 8 9 12 18 26 32 41 45 42 42 39 36 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 7. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 47.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.5% 5.8% 4.0% 3.0% 5.4% 5.6% 7.6% Logistic: 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 43 44 42 41 43 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 43 44 42 41 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 33 34 36 37 39 40 41 40 41 39 38 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 33 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT