* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 38 38 38 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 38 38 38 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 45 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 37 37 38 36 32 30 30 30 32 34 37 39 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 18 21 27 26 27 17 17 13 18 15 16 23 38 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 8 8 13 4 3 4 1 0 -1 0 0 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 275 283 290 293 304 310 312 298 301 271 290 284 276 245 252 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 139 136 135 136 138 144 149 150 155 148 138 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 123 123 121 118 116 118 121 126 130 130 133 127 118 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.6 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 61 58 54 50 45 42 41 45 49 54 58 65 66 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 18 20 20 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 8 13 25 44 67 56 42 27 23 8 -1 -1 10 1 -26 200 MB DIV 33 26 23 28 23 10 -13 2 22 19 8 4 20 23 41 31 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 -6 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -8 LAND (KM) 1716 1735 1754 1774 1794 1813 1838 1866 1877 1863 1846 1852 1874 1921 2018 1990 1873 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.3 21.3 21.7 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.4 49.3 48.9 48.6 48.0 47.7 47.7 48.0 48.5 48.9 49.2 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 28 24 22 17 16 17 20 25 30 32 35 32 21 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 841 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.6 49.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.3% 7.6% 5.4% 4.7% 6.7% 5.8% 5.6% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 38 38 38 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 45 43 41 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 38 38 38 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 45 43 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 36 36 34 35 37 39 40 42 44 43 41 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 31 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 38 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT