* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 33 31 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 33 31 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 33 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 39 31 29 32 35 30 16 5 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 8 7 -3 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 270 271 266 265 259 235 242 226 129 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.2 26.7 24.5 21.5 17.2 14.2 12.3 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 137 133 112 82 66 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -55.7 -56.9 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 60 59 57 55 54 56 62 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 39 34 35 18 30 91 90 70 70 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 31 42 44 35 99 40 63 44 57 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 13 10 15 14 30 52 20 27 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 1208 1265 1363 1467 1807 2341 1922 1441 1077 768 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.9 27.0 28.3 29.5 32.9 36.9 41.1 44.8 48.2 51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.3 171.4 171.8 172.2 173.7 177.2 181.8 184.9 186.4 187.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 21 26 25 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 18 14 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 39.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -8. -16. -23. -27. -29. -30. -33. -37. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -8. -13. -20. -23. -26. -33. -41. -48. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.7 171.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 39.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##