* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 50 51 49 48 50 50 50 51 51 52 55 58 59 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 50 51 49 48 50 50 50 51 51 52 55 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 53 52 48 47 44 42 42 44 47 52 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 9 11 18 29 27 26 18 15 11 16 14 17 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 7 10 10 6 1 1 8 0 0 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 253 258 265 277 287 296 300 308 301 293 283 290 301 299 276 257 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 136 137 136 135 133 133 134 137 141 148 149 155 143 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 121 119 119 118 117 115 115 117 120 124 129 129 134 123 116 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 68 67 63 59 56 52 48 47 48 50 52 55 55 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 16 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 4 -1 0 18 27 40 45 33 20 6 0 -4 -18 -6 38 200 MB DIV 18 19 35 34 50 43 -14 -6 5 17 -6 21 11 25 35 46 77 700-850 TADV -4 -2 1 -2 0 1 -2 0 -3 1 -2 0 -1 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1702 1742 1765 1776 1789 1812 1823 1820 1843 1863 1887 1891 1863 1854 1893 1985 2086 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.2 20.9 21.0 21.3 22.0 22.9 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.7 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.1 47.8 47.6 47.4 47.4 47.7 48.2 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 18 19 18 16 16 15 15 17 23 29 31 36 28 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 47.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 9.7% 7.0% 6.0% 8.7% 9.0% 7.1% Logistic: 1.4% 5.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% 4.6% 3.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.9% 2.2% 4.5% 4.2% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 50 50 51 49 48 50 50 50 51 51 52 55 58 59 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 47 48 46 45 47 47 47 48 48 49 52 55 56 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 44 42 41 43 43 43 44 44 45 48 51 52 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 34 33 35 35 35 36 36 37 40 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT