* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 30 31 33 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 30 31 33 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 35 34 31 38 36 36 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 253 261 264 267 263 255 245 233 238 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 24.4 22.5 20.5 15.5 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 148 142 135 109 89 69 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 60 62 61 60 53 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 59 48 44 12 15 20 33 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 62 47 45 79 31 84 79 80 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 22 10 11 2 4 61 53 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1338 1319 1311 1337 1379 1568 1843 2170 2210 1897 1497 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.4 27.7 30.6 33.6 36.5 39.5 42.6 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.2 172.9 172.6 172.5 172.3 172.6 173.5 175.1 177.1 179.7 182.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 29 20 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -10. -23. -34. -41. -44. -46. -49. -54. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. -3. -11. -19. -24. -27. -33. -40. -48. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 173.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##