* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 31 32 33 35 33 30 29 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 32 33 35 33 30 29 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 30 33 30 29 33 31 23 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 4 4 6 8 8 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 253 253 250 262 258 259 251 226 241 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.1 26.5 26.2 24.2 22.6 20.8 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 152 148 146 129 127 106 90 72 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.2 -54.0 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 60 59 60 59 54 54 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 14 15 13 10 9 11 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 71 72 62 50 44 15 39 70 66 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 82 65 55 53 68 42 94 95 88 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 13 20 17 19 15 8 29 36 51 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1369 1326 1298 1300 1318 1446 1644 1885 2202 2250 1908 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.5 29.0 31.4 33.7 36.4 39.4 42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.5 173.1 172.7 172.5 172.2 172.3 172.9 174.0 175.7 177.8 180.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 44 28 18 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -19. -29. -36. -38. -40. -43. -47. -54. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. -1. -6. -9. -12. -16. -23. -29. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 173.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##