* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 35 37 38 42 43 43 42 42 44 46 47 53 59 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 35 37 38 42 43 43 42 42 44 46 47 53 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 37 37 36 34 33 33 35 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 11 9 15 21 29 28 23 20 19 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 5 7 2 2 6 5 2 3 1 0 1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 283 283 278 281 281 309 302 311 301 298 305 293 280 274 272 278 278 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 29.1 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 128 126 125 136 137 136 133 133 133 133 135 140 151 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 123 119 117 126 123 120 114 115 115 115 118 124 134 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 69 69 67 68 65 63 58 54 50 49 49 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 18 17 18 18 19 18 18 18 19 19 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 8 9 11 -1 -3 -1 14 26 47 41 48 39 26 19 10 200 MB DIV 34 49 39 47 60 38 31 23 33 16 17 -4 0 -3 24 19 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -2 -4 1 0 3 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1734 1710 1692 1682 1679 1712 1755 1792 1818 1826 1835 1844 1880 1905 1916 1873 1829 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.9 19.8 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 41.3 42.4 43.3 44.2 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.3 47.1 46.9 46.7 46.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 5 3 0 1 1 1 3 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 6 5 4 12 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 17 28 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 18. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 40.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.2% 8.1% 5.6% 4.7% 7.6% 8.8% 10.7% Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.8% 3.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/19/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 35 37 38 42 43 43 42 42 44 46 47 53 59 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 34 36 37 41 42 42 41 41 43 45 46 52 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 33 34 38 39 39 38 38 40 42 43 49 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 26 27 31 32 32 31 31 33 35 36 42 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT