* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 42 47 49 50 54 55 55 56 58 62 69 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 42 47 49 50 54 55 55 56 58 62 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 38 38 38 39 41 43 42 42 42 44 49 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 10 8 7 11 18 24 21 20 16 14 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 11 7 6 9 5 9 3 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 288 287 283 278 288 300 288 270 284 293 289 291 264 266 216 251 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 133 129 127 127 138 137 135 133 133 135 136 140 150 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 129 124 120 119 126 122 118 114 114 117 119 123 132 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 68 69 67 64 61 61 57 52 47 42 42 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 20 19 19 19 19 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 18 11 13 14 3 0 3 11 26 35 51 44 26 16 2 200 MB DIV 18 30 35 33 46 45 37 26 21 11 18 -4 7 -6 -3 5 19 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 1 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 -1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1758 1722 1696 1681 1664 1661 1704 1742 1760 1760 1760 1756 1766 1759 1778 1789 1779 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 18.0 19.1 19.9 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.3 41.3 42.3 43.3 45.0 46.3 47.2 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.8 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 4 2 0 0 1 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 11 7 5 6 15 17 16 16 16 17 16 20 28 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 12. 14. 15. 19. 20. 20. 21. 23. 27. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 39.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.3% 8.2% 5.7% 4.8% 7.7% 9.2% 13.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.1% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.6% 2.9% 3.8% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 39 42 47 49 50 54 55 55 56 58 62 69 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 40 45 47 48 52 53 53 54 56 60 67 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 36 41 43 44 48 49 49 50 52 56 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 29 34 36 37 41 42 42 43 45 49 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT