* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 44 46 47 49 51 52 55 59 61 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 44 46 47 49 51 52 55 59 61 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 46 47 48 48 49 51 54 58 61 64 67 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 9 11 17 8 5 6 6 8 8 9 6 9 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 -1 8 5 5 5 8 6 1 1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 270 285 292 290 280 288 287 274 231 265 254 292 261 277 224 232 213 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 133 128 128 130 137 137 136 135 134 136 140 146 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 129 124 123 122 126 123 119 117 116 118 122 128 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 73 69 67 67 66 65 64 61 57 51 50 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 15 14 17 13 17 10 11 2 3 3 19 18 24 15 18 200 MB DIV 65 33 19 25 37 26 58 36 15 20 12 3 1 -2 0 11 44 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1858 1817 1782 1741 1707 1661 1642 1679 1712 1756 1751 1751 1756 1745 1757 1770 1776 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.7 17.8 18.9 19.7 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.1 38.9 39.9 40.9 43.1 45.0 46.4 47.4 47.8 48.1 48.1 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 12 9 7 5 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 17 9 6 8 15 17 16 17 17 18 21 26 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 30. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 37.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.3% 10.5% 7.3% 6.2% 8.8% 10.9% 14.9% Logistic: 1.8% 8.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 3.1% 6.8% 11.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 3.5% 9.1% 4.7% 2.7% 2.2% 4.2% 6.0% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 44 46 47 49 51 52 55 59 61 62 65 68 70 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 42 43 45 47 48 51 55 57 58 61 64 66 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 36 37 39 41 42 45 49 51 52 55 58 60 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 29 31 33 34 37 41 43 44 47 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT