* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 24 23 22 22 23 26 27 30 33 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 24 23 22 22 23 26 27 30 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 33 33 32 33 32 22 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 239 232 225 233 209 200 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 141 151 156 159 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 129 130 139 142 144 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 52 51 51 52 49 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 49 48 47 54 63 71 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 1 4 23 22 26 18 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1531 1529 1528 1532 1490 1420 1343 1212 1097 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.8 48.6 49.4 50.1 51.6 53.1 54.5 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 24 25 26 30 37 45 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 47.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 24 23 22 22 23 26 27 30 33 36 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 21 21 23 22 21 21 22 25 26 29 32 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 19 19 21 20 19 19 20 23 24 27 30 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT