* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 21 22 23 26 27 28 31 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 21 22 23 26 27 28 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 30 32 33 35 26 22 21 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 2 -3 6 0 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 240 241 240 225 233 210 210 202 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 137 137 139 143 158 161 160 162 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 126 126 127 131 145 145 144 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 55 55 55 55 51 50 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 36 44 42 44 53 51 56 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 15 12 1 -4 20 12 24 3 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 1 1 3 -1 2 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1572 1594 1619 1627 1634 1611 1549 1452 1338 1260 1187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.4 45.9 46.4 47.1 47.8 49.3 50.8 52.2 53.5 54.5 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 16 18 21 24 43 44 51 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 45.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/18/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 21 22 23 26 27 28 31 34 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 21 21 20 21 22 25 26 27 30 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 19 18 19 20 23 24 25 28 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT