* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 28 28 30 34 33 20 23 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 5 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 242 248 245 243 231 231 223 227 227 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 135 137 138 139 139 144 145 148 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 125 126 127 127 126 130 130 133 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 57 57 56 57 54 52 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 34 38 48 46 56 57 70 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 24 19 10 -1 13 -2 22 11 27 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 -3 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1566 1591 1618 1634 1652 1668 1623 1565 1481 1377 1280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.4 45.8 46.4 47.0 48.2 49.4 50.7 51.9 53.1 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 16 19 21 22 36 35 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. -7. -7. -5. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.9% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT