* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 29 27 25 25 24 26 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 29 27 25 25 24 26 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 23 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 23 25 28 29 32 15 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 6 0 1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 249 243 251 256 250 243 224 213 215 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 131 134 137 140 141 139 143 144 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 121 123 126 128 128 126 129 130 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 58 54 53 51 48 45 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 30 27 24 42 50 69 69 94 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 29 11 10 8 9 42 24 19 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 4 3 2 0 2 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1453 1481 1512 1537 1565 1614 1616 1551 1497 1404 1294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.5 45.8 46.2 46.7 47.8 49.0 50.2 51.5 52.7 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 15 18 23 22 26 33 34 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.6% 7.6% 5.5% 4.2% 6.4% 5.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.4% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 30 30 29 27 25 25 24 26 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 25 23 23 22 24 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 23 21 21 20 22 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT