* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 22 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 22 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 16 20 27 25 28 30 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 2 3 3 5 7 3 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 253 267 262 255 266 249 240 230 208 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 125 126 127 130 132 133 136 135 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 115 116 117 119 119 120 123 121 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 60 60 52 51 50 49 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 24 18 22 29 27 50 51 69 77 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 42 32 52 24 12 -6 41 30 32 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 4 3 2 0 2 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1436 1459 1485 1513 1544 1622 1668 1639 1595 1522 1402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.7 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.3 45.6 45.9 46.3 47.2 48.2 49.2 50.3 51.5 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 13 10 9 10 13 16 18 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 44.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.8% 4.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 22 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 29 31 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 22 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 29 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 19 20 19 18 18 20 21 22 22 24 26 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT