* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 44 41 36 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 44 41 36 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 9 19 36 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 270 302 294 279 281 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 24.9 20.2 15.3 10.8 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 108 84 73 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 95 77 70 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -55.9 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 59 63 69 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -11 17 13 15 -26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 34 39 29 50 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 28 38 54 67 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 841 703 551 441 223 299 713 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 39.2 41.0 42.9 44.7 47.7 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 58.7 57.6 55.8 54.0 48.8 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 21 23 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 5. 0. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -26. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 1. -3. -9. -13. -18. -21. -23. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.3 59.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/11/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 44 41 36 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 38 41 41 38 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 34 37 37 34 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 31 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT