* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 45 49 42 32 30 28 25 22 19 17 17 21 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 45 49 42 32 30 28 25 22 19 17 17 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 44 45 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 4 4 6 18 26 35 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 210 247 269 284 272 277 272 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.3 25.0 17.7 13.0 16.3 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 135 136 131 109 77 71 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 118 118 114 95 72 69 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -55.4 -55.7 -56.4 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 56 61 69 67 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 10 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -49 -38 -1 36 39 -35 -48 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 29 22 42 44 61 16 -9 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 19 16 21 18 60 65 -17 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1111 957 818 682 528 247 376 913 1462 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.9 37.5 39.3 41.1 44.5 46.6 47.6 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.3 59.9 58.9 57.9 54.2 48.1 40.6 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 18 20 21 22 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 20 16 13 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -7. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 7. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.2 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.6% 10.1% 7.0% 6.1% 8.7% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 4.3% 2.5% 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/11/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 45 49 42 32 30 28 25 22 19 17 17 21 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 43 47 40 30 28 26 23 20 17 15 15 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 38 42 35 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 35 28 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT