* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 39 34 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 34 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 47 41 36 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 15 17 21 26 27 28 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 3 1 1 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 204 233 230 227 228 223 245 251 258 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.3 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 94 90 91 93 91 90 88 89 90 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 54 51 50 47 41 35 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 22 21 18 15 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 43 50 43 33 22 3 7 12 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 7 16 19 22 17 -2 1 -29 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 -1 3 6 0 3 0 0 -2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 424 411 412 434 464 538 604 635 675 721 753 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.5 120.4 121.2 121.8 122.2 122.4 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -19. -23. -27. -29. -27. -25. -23. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -21. -26. -32. -39. -50. -58. -68. -75. -79. -82. -86. -89. -93. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##