* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 56 53 44 34 26 30 24 21 20 22 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 56 53 44 34 26 30 24 21 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 41 44 50 53 50 44 40 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 12 4 9 19 32 44 57 59 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 -4 -5 -2 1 3 2 1 0 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 208 195 184 195 250 254 254 263 276 302 295 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.6 24.4 16.9 12.8 16.7 15.7 15.5 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 129 130 134 134 104 75 70 76 76 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 110 111 116 116 92 71 68 72 72 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.7 -56.0 -56.5 -56.0 -54.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 49 47 48 50 61 67 60 51 44 47 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 14 13 10 7 8 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -27 -40 -49 -5 3 -27 -79 -65 0 35 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 0 8 10 23 48 47 7 -18 -63 -1 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 11 9 9 15 22 54 23 -31 -31 -28 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1444 1351 1258 1126 997 724 477 179 426 933 1550 995 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.0 32.8 34.1 35.3 38.6 42.1 45.1 47.1 47.9 48.1 47.9 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.8 59.8 57.1 52.8 47.2 40.3 32.0 22.6 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 15 18 21 22 23 26 29 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 8 16 16 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -0. -9. -18. -27. -34. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -2. -4. -9. -14. -14. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 21. 18. 9. -1. -9. -5. -11. -14. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 60.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.9% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 56 53 44 34 26 30 24 21 20 22 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 43 47 53 50 41 31 23 27 21 18 17 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 42 48 45 36 26 18 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 40 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT