* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 50 42 35 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 50 42 35 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 50 42 37 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 12 17 16 16 22 24 26 24 26 20 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 1 4 2 3 0 -4 -2 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 179 211 234 230 227 225 232 240 249 260 254 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.1 23.2 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 103 93 90 93 94 90 89 89 90 92 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 58 56 55 49 48 41 34 28 24 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 24 23 19 16 14 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 35 31 37 32 34 6 4 4 23 41 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 23 15 24 28 7 4 -8 -13 -7 2 -16 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 6 0 0 1 5 0 2 -1 -2 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 427 415 432 461 535 609 653 701 745 785 817 852 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.1 118.7 119.3 120.3 121.2 122.0 122.6 123.1 123.5 123.7 124.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -29. -37. -43. -53. -62. -71. -78. -83. -88. -90. -93. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.1 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##