* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082015 09/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 54 58 52 42 30 22 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 54 58 52 42 30 22 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 48 49 46 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 14 15 4 4 15 24 33 47 54 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -3 -2 2 4 1 0 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 218 213 198 190 224 244 265 264 282 292 298 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 25.3 19.3 16.0 13.9 16.1 15.9 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 132 129 130 134 111 80 73 72 77 78 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 111 110 112 115 97 74 69 70 74 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -56.1 -56.7 -56.7 -53.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 48 50 50 50 54 66 64 59 47 49 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 13 15 13 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 -28 -23 -34 -41 -18 -18 -44 -73 -23 39 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -2 0 -5 4 23 51 25 55 7 -41 -24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 11 10 9 16 6 48 29 12 -32 -28 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1451 1434 1370 1264 1159 889 621 356 225 647 1290 1127 501 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.8 33.8 36.7 40.1 43.6 45.9 46.9 47.4 47.5 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.0 58.1 55.0 50.4 44.3 35.6 24.3 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 10 13 16 20 20 21 26 34 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 9 8 15 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. -5. -14. -22. -28. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -3. -1. -4. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 22. 12. -0. -8. -12. -15. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.6 60.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 9.6% 10.7% Logistic: 1.9% 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 2.8% 3.9% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 54 58 52 42 30 22 18 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 46 52 56 50 40 28 20 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 41 47 51 45 35 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 39 43 37 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT